More Injuries — And Potentially Some Help — For the Cubs Rotation

Through their ups and downs this season — a pair of 10-game winning streaks here, a 10-game losing streak there — the one constant for the Cubs has been injuries to their starting pitchers. On that front, this week brought a flurry of bad news. Not only did both Edward Cabrera and Ben Brown land on the injured list on Wednesday, bringing their current total of sidelined starters to six, but president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer announced that Justin Steele, who suffered a setback in late April while rehabbing from his second Tommy John surgery, isn’t likely to rejoin the rotation this season. In need of warm bodies to provide some innings, the team swung a trade with the Mets to acquire lefty David Peterson, a 2025 All-Star who has been getting lit up this year, but if the Cubs aspire to maintain their hold on a playoff spot, they’ll need significantly more help ahead of the August 3 trade deadline.

At this writing, seven of the 11 pitchers who have made at least one start for the team this season — including openers — have landed on the IL at least once, and that count doesn’t even include Steele. With Wednesday’s moves, five of the six pitchers forecast to throw the most innings for the team in our preseason Positional Power Rankings were out hurt, though Thursday’s scheduled activation of Opening Day starter Matthew Boyd from his second IL stint reduces that count. The Cubs rotation ranked 20th in projected WAR in our PPR, with a projected 4.03 ERA and a 4.15 FIP, but even that level of performance has been unattainable. Currently, Chicago is 26th in starting pitcher WAR (2.9), with a combined 4.64 ERA and a 4.79 FIP, and while the team’s use of the occasional opener fuzzes up those stats a bit, the bullpen (including bulk pitchers) has netted -0.3 WAR, with a 3.82 ERA and a 4.62 FIP. Don’t even ask about ready help from the minors, as the organization’s top upper-level pitching prospects — Jaxon Wiggins, Brody McCullough, Brandon Birdsell, Connor Noland — either are currently hurt or have been ineffective. It’s a bleak situation everywhere you look, at least at the moment.

The 28-year-old Cabrera, who already spent 15 days on the IL from May 21 to June 5 due to a blister on his right middle finger, injured himself while making the final out of the fifth inning in Tuesday’s start against the Mets at Citi Field. By that point, he’d already had a rough day. During the second inning, a one-hop 100.5-mph comebacker from Jared Young rattled around his groin, caroming off both inner thighs. He recovered to throw Young out at first base but was understandably shaken up, and needed to throw a warm-up pitch before being cleared to continue.

In the fifth inning, with runners on first and second, Young tormented Cabrera again. On a grounder to the right side, first baseman Michael Busch and second baseman Nico Hoerner both dove for the ball, with the latter making a sliding stop and then throwing to first base from his knees. Cabrera arrived in time to cover the bag but more or less did the splits while reaching to receive the throw. Young was out, but Cabrera was in obvious pain, first getting up and limping around before sitting back down and eventually being carted off the field.

While he finished his outing having allowed two runs in five innings, Cabrera has been roughed up for a 5.01 ERA and a 4.87 FIP in 72 1/3 innings so far this season. His 14 starts rank second on the team behind only the 16 of Shota Imanaga, the rotation’s only constant, but it’ll be awhile before Cabrera makes his next start, as he’s been diagnosed with strains of both his left hamstring and adductor; the former was characterized as moderate grade. While the Cubs haven’t announced a timeline for his return, he’ll likely be out several weeks. When teammate Jameson Taillon — who has been even less effective than Cabrera, with a 5.19 ERA, a 6.31 FIP, and a cringeworthy 2.66 homers per nine allowed in 67 2/3 innings — suffered what was termed a moderate strain of his left hamstring during his June 8 start, the Cubs said he wouldn’t be back until sometime after the All-Star break. More than two weeks later, they still haven’t clarified a timeline.

As for Brown, the 26-year-old righty pitched well against the Blue Jays on Sunday, allowing two runs in six innings in a 16-2 rout. Discomfort in his neck prevented him from throwing a bullpen session on Tuesday, however, and he was placed on the IL on Wednesday with what was termed a neck strain. He returned to Chicago to be checked by doctors. According to the Chicago Tribune’s Megan Montemurro, the team is concerned that his current injury could be related to the 2024 neck issues that prevented him from pitching after June 8 of that season. That year, he was diagnosed with an osteoma, a benign bone tumor that caused his neck to “lock up” when he pitched. The situation resolved itself without surgery, but he couldn’t resume throwing until October.

The Cubs have to hope for a better outcome, because Brown has been by far their most effective pitcher this season. Fueling his breakout has been his new sinker, which has averaged 96.4 mph while holding hitters to a .245 slugging percentage. The former 33rd-round pick by the Phillies in 2017 — who was acquired by the Cubs five years later in exchange for David Robertson — began the season in the bullpen, making 12 appearances before joining the rotation on May 8. Since then, he’s posted a 1.70 ERA and a 2.40 FIP in 42 1/3 innings, and overall he has a 1.85 ERA and a 2.50 FIP with a 25.4% strikeout rate in 68 innings.

Steele, a 30-year-old lefty, made the NL All-Star team and finished fifth in the Cy Young voting in 2023, but was limited to 24 starts the following season due to a left hamstring strain and elbow tendinitis. A further bout of tendinitis sent him to the IL after just four starts last season, and after getting a second opinion on his MRI, he underwent “a revision repair” of his ulnar collateral ligament by Dr. Keith Meister; he had previously undergone Tommy John surgery in 2017.

The Cubs expected Steele to be able to contribute to the rotation at some point this season, but while rehabbing, he suffered a flexor strain in late April and was shut down. He resumed throwing earlier this week, but on Tuesday, Hoyer told 670 The Score that at best, Steele might be able to help the team in a relief role later this year. “Whether or not he can help us at the end of the season I think is unclear,” said Hoyer. “I think it’s probably unrealistic to think he’s gonna be fully stretched out at any point, so if he does help us, I think it’s gonna be in shorter bursts.”

Enter Peterson, whom the Cubs acquired from the Mets late on Wednesday in exchange for 22-year-old first baseman Cole Mathis, a 2024 second-round pick. A first-round 2017 pick out of the University of Oregon (no. 20 overall), Peterson spent all of the shortened 2020 season with the Mets, but between injuries and trips to Triple-A and the bullpen, he didn’t make more than 21 starts in a season until last year. The 6-foot-6, 240-pound southpaw pitched his way onto the All-Star team on the strength of a strong first half, but it’s been mostly downhill ever since, mainly due to a high BABIP:

Both Peterson’s sinker (which he throws 28.5% of the time) and four-seamer (22.9% of the time) average a shade over 92 mph, and the latter gets whacked more often than a piñata at a child’s birthday party; this year, batters are hitting .354 and slugging .542 against the pitch. His curve and slider have both generated whiff rates above 30% in the past season and a half, but his changeup has deteriorated. He held hitters to a .324 slugging percentage with a 27.1% whiff rate on the pitch in 2024, and a .298 slugging with a 24.1% whiff rate last year, but this season batters have slugged .484 and whiffed on just 20.6% of their swings at the pitch, and he’s cut back from throwing it 15-16% of the time to 11.2%. That its average velocity has increased from 84.6 mph last year to 85.9 mph this year may offer a starting point for the Cubs to address.

Basically, Peterson is a change-of-scenery, maybe-they-fix-him type, a pending free agent who’s only making $8.1 million this year, and who cost the team relatively little to acquire. Last month, Mathis placed 33rd on the Cubs’ Top 34 Prospects list with a 35+ FV, though other outlets regard him more highly. A two-way star at the College of Charleston (South Carolina), he underwent Tommy John surgery shortly after being drafted and is now a righty-swinging first base-only prospect, and an injury-prone one at that. Last season, an elbow sprain limited him to 29 games at A-level Myrtle Beach and another 16 in the Arizona Fall League, and while he’s hit .272/.396/.585 with 10 home runs and a 24.2% strikeout rate in 39 games split between Myrtle Beach and High-A South Bend this season, earlier this week, he went on the 7-day IL with what FanGraphs has learned is a left wrist sprain. (The nature of the injury was previously undisclosed.) Here’s part of what James Fegan wrote about him for the aforementioned list:

Mathis is sort of an odd duck for filling out a first baseman’s offensive requirements. There have been some subtle tweaks of late to give his bat path more space to generate loft, and he shows some good feel for bending at the waist, but Mathis is a high ball hitter with more of a level cut. His footwork is conservative at the plate, and the above-average power he has generated during portions of his career took a while to return after his injury. While his raw contact skill is plus, Mathis’ very passive approach, along with a lot of two-strike expansion for his experience level, has caused him to run elevated strikeout rates in pro ball. In all, there are too many warts and too many setbacks to project him as a regular at such a bat-first spot on the diamond.

As for Boyd, he made just two starts before missing three weeks due to a biceps strain, and then three more starts before tearing the meniscus in his left knee while playing with his children. He underwent surgery on May 7, and after making a four-inning, 59-pitch rehab start for South Bend this past Saturday, he’s scheduled to be activated to start against the Mets on Thursday. In 24 innings so far this season, he has a 6.00 ERA but a 2.35 FIP; he’s struck out 31% of hitters, but has been singed by a .377 BABIP. Last year, he made his first All-Star team while putting up a 3.21 ERA and a 3.65 FIP in 179 2/3 innings. If he can approximate that form, it will be a major boost for the Cubs.

Boyd rejoins a rotation that currently includes Imanaga, Colin Rea, and Javier Assad, all of whom — knock on wood — have yet to land on the IL this season, which isn’t to say that they’ve pitched particularly well. From that trio, only Assad has an ERA- or a FIP- below 100. The 28-year-old righty has split his season between Triple-A and the majors, making six starts and six relief appearances for Chicago totaling 49 innings. In that time, he’s put up a 4.04 ERA (99 ERA-) and a 4.74 FIP (115 FIP-) while striking out just 15.5% of hitters. To the extent that he’s been successful, it’s because he’s done a decent job of avoiding hard contact, with a 5.2% walk rate and a 5.8% barrel rate (72nd percentile).

Imanaga, who’s made 16 starts totaling 92 innings with a 4.40 ERA and a 4.86 FIP, has once again struggled to keep the ball in the park; he served up three homers to the Mets in the nightcap of a doubleheader on Wednesday, boosting his home run rate to 1.96 per nine, second highest among NL qualifiers and 0.03 above last year’s mark. Rea has made 12 starts and four relief appearances totaling 79 1/3 innings. Three of those relief appearances were as the bulk pitcher following an opener, because lefties have hit him at a .310/.379/.440 clip. On that note, the only other Cubs pitcher to take a start this season and avoid the IL is lefty reliever Ryan Rolison, who opened for Rea on June 14 against the Giants. Overall, Rea has pitched to a 4.99 ERA and a 4.83 FIP, but lately he’s been worse, getting lit for a 5.88 ERA and a 5.91 FIP over his last eight appearances.

To date, the biggest loss among Cubs starters remains that of Cade Horton, who was the runner-up to Drake Baldwin in last year’s NL Rookie of the Year voting on the strength of an 11-4 record, a 2.67 ERA, a 3.58 FIP, and 2.2 WAR. He made just two starts this season before landing on the IL on April 4 due to a forearm strain. After a follow-up visit to Dr. Meister, he underwent Tommy John surgery on April 16, so he’s done for the year.

The Cubs were just 34-34 on June 10, but since then, they’ve won nine of 12 during a soft spot in their schedule, taking three of four from the Rockies and two of three from the Giants, splitting a two-game series with the Blue Jays, and winning their first three games of a four-game series against the Mets. At this writing, they’re tied for second in both the NL Central and the Wild Card standings with the Cardinals. They’re seven games behind the Brewers in the division and just half a game ahead of the Padres in the Wild Card race, with the Marlins, Nationals, Diamondbacks, and Pirates all within three games of them.

The addition of Peterson may pay off, but the Cubs need to do some serious shopping to fortify their rotation to reach October. If the Tigers decide to trade Tarik Skubal, he’ll be the top candidate on the market despite uneven results since returning from surgery to remove a bone chip from his elbow, but whether the Cubs have the will or the prospects to acquire him is an another question. Other established starters who could be dealt — some more desirable than others, obviously — include Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, Reid Detmers, Sandy Alcantara, Robbie Ray, and Freddy Peralta, the last of whom is currently struggling but could at least be reunited with manager Craig Counsell, under whom he was quite successful in Milwaukee. Every contender would like to land an ace, but for the Cubs, just about any of the aforementioned starters at least offers some hope for an upgrade, the ability to eat some innings while preventing more runs than the makeshift rotation the team is currently fielding. The Cubs don’t have much certainty when it comes to their pitching, and they need to re-arm themselves before this season slips away.

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