Hi Dan, in a league that uses BA, HR, RBI, SB but not runs scored, how much would you push down players who hit first or second in their lineup versus 3/4/5? I’m thinking Witt, Wood, Chourio and similar players rated as first rounders for 2027 but who seem to get a good amount of value from run scored; i know I should move them down a little bit relative to the big power hitters with higher RBI totals, I’m just not sure how much.
Dan Szymborski
Unless you think they're going to be knocked down in the order, don't push them down at all! If you do think, mentally knock off 15-20ish PAs per slot.
Eugenio Velez
What do you think Padres do well?
Dan Szymborski
The team is aggressive, and do well at identifying what the problem is, even if they're not always great a solving them. They're excellent at finding raw reliever types and making them effective. Those are the two biggest
O'Votto
Phil Castellini said this morning, "we need to let the baseball folks run the baseball team" in so many words. I'll believe it when i see it.
jonmberra
Do you think any of the teams with a significant playoff drought will make it next year?
Dan Szymborski
The Pirates *could*. And I think if the Nats had a couple big things go their way in FA, I think they could ahve enough pitching to be at least interesting
Matthew Spence
What happened with the Cubs? Offense went so cold.
Dan Szymborski
Sometimes team just suck in two games
Dan Szymborski
The Dodgers had 14 independent losing streaks this year (two games or more). And all of them were to teams worse than them, naturally
Dan Szymborski
It just comes down to who executed that day, and it's not predictive or meaningful in any sense. Just embrace the chaos
withay
Dan, is it too late to make ZiPS project the Padres to be favored over the Brewers? I worry Pat Murphy is running out of motivational material.
Dan Szymborski
Model changes would not be a great idea mid playoffs!
Dan Szymborski
But a good leader can find something to hate
betob
What’s up with the reluctance to label anything as an error. Thinking specifically of the Harper and Alvarez misplays.
Dan Szymborski
To be an error, either a grounder has to go through your legs, a lazy throw has to be horribly off, or you have to do something that looks like a vaudeville sketch
Jos
Hey Dan. What do you make of the starting rotations for the Brewers-Padres series? Seems like Miz being able to start twice is a huge advantage for MIL, while the Padres lack of rotation depth is a negative as these series get longer and longer.
Dan Szymborski
It's very helpful, and you'll see it in the projections!
Lagom
What percentile would CWS beating LAD in the World Series be in terms of all time sports upsets?
Dan Szymborski
Basically, no baseball playoff series could possibly even be anywhere high on a list
toodamntall
What are your thoughts on how Boston handled its SP in the two games?
Dan Szymborski
I didn't always like who they CHOSE for relief, but I don't have any problems with the decisions themselves. I know Gray is unhappy, but his velocity was dropping quickly and his command was clearly off
Dan Szymborski
And it's kinda hard to get too upset about individual pitching decisions when your team scored two runs in two games anyway
robertobeers
A man a Dan a chat a cat eating Arbys, ybragnitaetacatahcanadanama
JustinPBG
Are the Red Sox that bad or are the Yankees playing to their talent level finally? I know Boston can't hit but they supposedly have a good bullpen
Dan Szymborski
I mean, the Yankees are a really good team.
Grandpaboy
If you ran the Cubs, what are the 2-3 moves you’d make to close the gap with Milwaukee? I’m through with the Jed/Carter regime; what would you and ZiPS do?
Dan Szymborski
Really think you need to go all-in on top pitching as much as you can . It's fine to have value guys, but the Cubs had too many value guys.
kfiman
Do you think the Yankees roster construction for the short series is the way teams should go in the future, 16 p9 players and 10 pitchers?
Dan Szymborski
I wholeheartedly agree with Baumann's piece. As long as you have an arm who can be the mopup dude if things get out of control, you don't need to carry a billion pitchers for three games.
kfiman
Do you think the way the Yankees constructed their roster is how teams should do it for a short series? 16 position players and only 10 pitchers?
jroth
I assume Brandon Lowe's All-Star–worthy season has bumped his projections (which were pretty bad), but by how much? Is there any justification for giving him even a medium-sized contract?
Dan Szymborski
Quite a bit – he's a 3.something WAR guy for next year in ZiPS. Nothing crazy, but he should get a pretty good deal
eandy
How does ZiPS react to Ty France's season? He achieved something like his 99th percentile outcome from the preseason projection. How many other cases has there been with such a high achievement compared to expectations?
Dan Szymborski
97th in ZiPS! And yeahyou expect like 60 guys to do that in a year, though some will be harder to tell because they 97th percentile still sucks or they're in the minors
Dan Szymborski
I'm guessing he'll be up to a 105-110 wRC+ in the projections?
Baseball Learner
Should Cole or Rodon start game 1? Does Zips think it matter
Dan Szymborski
Order tends not to really matter so much
drplantwrench
follow up on the angels team: what do you think is the most realistic pathway Kroenke will take? personally i think he'll push hard for skubal
Dan Szymborski
Honestly? I don't have the slightest idea what the Angels end up doing
kwisla
Obviously baseball player evaluation is hard but watching the Yankees series it came to mind that none of Warren, Rice, Schlittler, or Jones we're really ranked in Top 100 lists (Jones was in and out a few times). What was missed with these players that have become big contributors that wasn't seen by people who scout these players?
Dan Szymborski
Honestly, I'm not sure there's something to *do*, though it's always important to keep your mind open to changing your mind on a player. I do think sometimes the higher floor guys without some real standout tool tend to be underrated
Baseball Learner
Does Zips this Ben Rice will end his career as the best Rice ever? Or is Jim Rice's crown safe?
Dan Szymborski
I think he likely had too late a start to end up at Jim Rice territory. I'll also say that Jim Rice vs. Sam Rice isn't obvious
jonmberra
What trade do you think Red Sox will make with either the Cardinals/Nationals this offseason?
Dan Szymborski
I could totally see Duran end up with the Cardinals
Baby Yoda
Abstract question about "reverse replacement level": what would production look like if you took a league-average-ish starter (say Kyle Leahy or Alec Burleson) and sent them down to play a full season at each MiLB level (AAA down to FCL)? Besides the hitters probably just getting pitched around, would they put up video game stats or "just" peak SEC-type lines?
Dan Szymborski
Think about 20 points of wRC+ higher than in the majors or so
Bob Loblaw
I need the White Sox to keep winning just to see Mune's postgame interviews.
war2d2
Dan! I’m sad! The Cubs looked like absolute pop on toast for the last month and then went out with a whimper! HELP MAKE THE SAD GO AWAY
Dan Szymborski
You literally have a dice roll in your handle!
ImKeithHernandez
Why was Dustin Harris hitting second last night? Also, who is Dustin Harris?
Dan Szymborski
I will note here that ZiPS has Harris with the with the 3rd best OBP against righties on the Padres roster, at .330 (.350 for Tatis, .332 for France)
war2d2
that was supposed to say “poop on toast,” fyi
Dan Szymborski
Pop on toast sounds pretty bad too. I like coke and I like toast, but a piece of toast that has been soaked in Coke sounds pretty gross. Also, you're saying pop instead of soda, which is also gross
Baby Yoda
Related FA question: if a guy is an FA when the CBA expires, could a team sign them to a "minor league" contract with a gazillion-dollar signing bonus and let them play at AAA until the lockout ends?
Dan Szymborski
By my understanding, a free agent who is a free agent under the terms of the prior CBA is still considered part of the "MLB Player" bargaining unit
Dan Szymborski
but I think TECHNICALLY if he's signed to the deal BEFORE the lockout, then he's not part of the bargaining unit? But I don't think anyone's done that for obvious awkward reasons
Dan Szymborski
But if, say, Skubal signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers with a $300 million signing bonus, I imagine there would be huge controversy that neither side wants to deal with. Nor do I think a player would do quite that situation if they're a big name
sliderinthedirt
How much better would the Ray’s WS odds be if they hadn’t randomly traded Lowe and Montgomery for garbage?
Dan Szymborski
Honestly, probably marginal
Dylan
What's your offseason plan to get the Os in the thick of the division race if you're in charge?
Dan Szymborski
SPEND ON PITCHING
war2d2
Ha, I never noticed that about my handle. My name is Warren and the prequels came out when I was first dating my ex. Her brother was 12 and he started calling me War2D2 because it sounded like R2-D2 and he was, as I said, 12.
Dan Szymborski
Honestly, I thought War was for baseball and 2D2 was a joke about rolling two two-sided dice
jabrwcky
What is the current "market inefficiency" that savvy teams take advantage of that we might not always think about?
Dan Szymborski
I think there's still a definable difference between teams at identifying OKish players with upside. The Brewers rule this in a way that even the Rays don't
HappyFunBall
re: Subs pitching. Value guys are a lovely floor. It's great to have a roster full of guys who aren't holes. But at some point you have to have someone step up and perform as a star. It's a gamble, for sure, and an expensive one. But the best way to win that gamble is to sign guys who are already stars.
Fangraphs Man
How does ZiPS feel about the 2027 White Sox as currently constructed? I assume it has a relatively high opinion of Vargas, but I doubt they're getting 8 WAR out of Meidroth and Peters again, and I feel like their rotation is very weak. Are they still tracking like a bottom~10 team next year?
Dan Szymborski
ZiPS think they're OKish, like 78 to 83 wins or so, but that's good enough to be interesting in the AL Central
Dan Szymborski
The White Sox have done a really good job at throwing shit against the wall and seeing what sticks. That's one of the advantages bad teams have that good teams just aren't going to match. No contending team can really afford to sign a guy from Banana Ball and see if he works out in the majors
Kwanbelievable
What does ideal roster construction for the Division Series look like? 14 hitters, 12 pitchers? Same for the CS and WS?
Dan Szymborski
Probalby somewhere around that. I wish long relievers were still a thing. I think every team should maintain a roster that allows them to complete any non-extra inning game with two pitchers.
war2d2
I’m from Chicago, they always say “pop” there but for whatever reason my family said “soda” or “coke” even though we were a Pepsi family. Doubly weird because my family was in Chicago for generations, and my dad was from LA.
Dan Szymborski
Pepsi eww. My girlfriend had to ban me from shaking my fist at Pepsi trucks when we were in public
Dan Szymborski
One of my favorite things to do is ask for a Coke at a restaurant, and when the waiter/waitress asks "is Pepsi OK?" just say "No" and let the awkward silence persist for a few seconds.
Dan Szymborski
(I don't feel guilty doing this because I'm actually always super nice to staff every other interaction and my standard tip is 25%)
kingkash7788
Have you watched the show "Pantheon" on Netflix. It's really good
Dan Szymborski
I have not. Truth is, my scripted television/movie watching is far smaller than the average American
Dan Szymborski
For one, baseball takes up most of the screens seven months a year, and I will generally play a game or watch a game stream before watching most TV shows.
Baseball Learner
My question about Cole and Rodon was based on the presumption Schlittler starts came 2 and Fried game 3, and one of Cole or Rodon might not start at all
Dan Szymborski
I *think* ZiPS will generally prefer Rodon slightly then, but I'm not really positive until I run it
cyanocitta
With the Blue Jays losing several notable names to free agency (e.g., Springer, Bieber), and seeing some returnees from long-term injury (e.g., Santander, Ponce, Barger), what's the ZiPS prognosis for 2027? I'm assuming that they sign a SP, as well as one or two position players with SLG upside, but it would be interesting to see the positions at which your projections have the biggest potential marginal gains.
Dan Szymborski
ZiPS does think they need some addition for the holes; right now they'd project as .500y
Gregg
Thoughts on Marlins SP as RP during bullpen days?
Dan Szymborski
I don't have a problem with it. If soemone is throwing that day, I have zero issue with them making short appearances. Though you kinda want the players to be OK with it, even if they don't technically have a say in the matter
war2d2
My handle is also kind of a joke because irl I’m 6’5” and R2-D2…is not.
J. Peterman
Denzel Clarke 2027 over/under .650 OPS? And if under, what does that mean for his playing time?
Dan Szymborski
Amusingly, ZiPS has him right at .651 OPS. So not taking an over under yet!
Kwanbelievable
RE: Marlins SP throwing during bullpen days, is there any scientific evidence behind the benefit of bullpen days? I've often wondered if the current recovery cycle of a SP is contributing to arm blowouts, but I have no idea how one would go about trying to quantify that when there's basically no counterfactual data to compare with
Dan Szymborski
There's no real data to work with, as far as I know
drplantwrench
i was never been much of a soda person, but ive recently fallen into a Dr Pepper craze
Dan Szymborski
Dr. Pepper is interesting since it's hard to figure out what it actually is. Though Dr. Pepper knockoffs have done a good job so someone's figured it out
Dan Szymborski
The best thing about Dr. PEpper is the name gives generic Dr. Pepper room to be creative
I *am* told, by the way, that we'll be able to drop images directly into here at some point
J. Peterman
To hijack a Mitch Hedberg joke, the doctorate is unnecessary because I would have drank that from a Mr. Pepper.
Dan Szymborski
At least most other sodas (not Coke) you can kinda identify what it's supposed to be. Like Sprite is lemon and lime (though the recipe is more than that, also Hedberg). And Mountain Dew is vaguely citrus + phlegm
Dan Szymborski
Generic Dr. Peppers do a way better job than generic Cokes. I can clock generic Coke easily, and I can tell how close a Coke is to the date on the bottom of the can. You can tell just by smelling – Coke uses a lot of aromatic oils. A Coke that is 10 months away from date (usually the freshest coke you can get) will smell of citrus oil, vanilla, and cinnamon, with other vague warm spice notes
war2d2
Yeah, I personally only drink Coke (to the extent I ever drink soda). But my family was crazy for Pepsi, my grandma would drink it with breakfast.
Kwanbelievable
What is Dan having for lunch today, and how much of it is going to be paid as tax to the cats?
Dan Szymborski
I had some Sam's Club General Tso's for lunch. The cats did not get any. None of my current cats are into human food, though Luna will try and stick her paw in your drink out of curiosity.
Dan Szymborski
Luckily, since I mostly drink out of deli containers, I keep a lid on my desk to put on my drink if she's visiting me in my office
Dan Szymborski
I don't like doing dishes, most of my dishes stay in the cabinet. While I use normal utensils, I like drinking out of deli containers and using paper plates.
Dan Szymborski
(I do have a dishwasher)
Dan Szymborski
I tend to accumulate desk forks though
Dan Szymborski
I'll usually keep using the same fork. I'm kinda gross if other people aren't around
Gregg
Why do you think models (Stuff+, Pitchingbot) think Cavalli is just average but his underlying metrics show him to be elite?
Dan Szymborski
I think it's one of those things where we have to see more, even though this is a copout answer
maximus74
Mr Pibb > Dr Pepper
snakestl
Hot topic for sure right now…what should the Cardinals do at 3B for 2027?
Dan Szymborski
Feels like something that would be a trade
fishnchips
Congrats! You’re the new Mariners manager. What’s your first question or move?
Dan Szymborski
"How did I get this job without interviewing for it or expressing interest? Is this even legal?"
Dan Szymborski
I'm kinda curious how long they go with Kerr
Dan Szymborski
though that seems like a lame interesting thing
Kwanbelievable
What are you looking forward to most during the Braves/Phillies game this evening?
Dan Szymborski
Oh, I didn't publish the q
Dan Szymborski
Also curious if the Braves can ensure no righties against Schwarber/Harper
drplantwrench
also theres a bunch of james acaster jokes on dr. pepper. "it tastes like a sexy battery", "can says mixed fruit flavor, im not stupid, i know what fruit tastes like. ive never sent a fruit salad for being too dr. peppery"
Syndergaardengnomes
Mr. Pibb? Dude doesn't even have his degree…
Kwanbelievable
If you think Mountain Dew tastes like phlegm, I would hate to hear your opinion of most energy drinks
Which members of the upcoming 2026 free agency class are flying a bit more under the radar than you would expect, given their underlying data and your projections? Conversely, who seems like an unnecessary overpay risk?
Dan Szymborski
Suzuki maybe? Just feels like he's not talked about a lot relative to his quality
J. Peterman
Which MLB player is the Dr Pepper-est of the league? The one you can just can't figure out what he is. For me it might be Francisco Alvarez.
Dan Szymborski
Arraez. He does something weird for 2026 players. And you're just not sure if he IS good or not, since his defensive numbers have been all over the place
drplantwrench
this begs the question, is Dr. Pepper the official soda of comedians? whats the official soda of baseball writers?
Dan Szymborski
Diet Coke maybe? A lot of guys don't leave the press box at all, and pound Diet Cokes from the machine that's usually there and available
Dan Szymborski
Now me, I tend to venture out and shotgun a few beers, sometimes with random fans that recognize my name from my badge
Dan Szymborski
Oh, the only cat that was really into human food was Galileo. I swear he could smell if you were thinking about food. He's the one I'd get Arby's for after every vet visit and I'd just hand him the sandwich while in the drive-thru window
war2d2
One of my strongest sense-memories is of being about 8yo on a family vacation and having Dr. Pepper and saltwater taffy both for the first time. I still like the good doctor, but taffy is unwelcome in my home.
Dan Szymborski
I don't like super chewy things. For some reason I've always had kind of a weak jaw muscle and if I eat a ton of chewy thing, my jaw will be sore for a day or two
maximus74
Do you think the Cardinals make a play for some actual pitching, or be too afraid/cautious after the new CBA?
Dan Szymborski
I think they'll be conservative
TheBSharps
I just took a peek at the FA list. My goodness that's some soda on toast.
drplantwrench
with the FA class being somewhat stinky, do you expect more trades to happen this winter than usual?
Dan Szymborski
Yup
Dan Szymborski
I've been asked to bring back the Lightning Round, so I'll do that today. I'll answer what's left in thq queue, but OTHERWISE, I will answer anything, even if I don't know the answer. Except politics and excessively ipersonal things
NATS Fan
How will Zips grade Foster Griffith this offseason? Like the NATS stud or the Giardian not so great?
Dan Szymborski
He'll be a useful mid-rotating inning eater probably
Dan Szymborski
Nats would benefit re-signing
limron
Will we have any awards surprises this year? Based on all the inside information twitter thinks you have, you should be counting final ballots by now?
Dan Szymborski
I count the ballots? Jack O'Connell I believe has the access to the formsite submissions
Dan Szymborski
I wonder if someething happened to Jack suddenly, if theres' anyone with access to the awards. Would we have to revote?
HappyFunBall
re:Cavalli when I see a pitcher who seems to be outperforming his models I generally assume it's something to do with sequencing or deception. Stuff that the bots don't measure so well. You know, "pitching" v "throwing"
Dan Szymborski
Usually more time irons things out nicely!
Dan Szymborski
Meh-plus
vinzk
What does ZIPs think of Lawrence Butler for 2027v
Dan Szymborski
OK, seems to be working now?
Dan Szymborski
I think it's working now?
Dan Szymborski
averageish
HappyFunBall
Game One was Austin Riley's redemption of a bad season, Two was Bohm's. By that measure, which sob story is most likely going to swing Game Three? If this isn't the setting for an Aaron Nola CGSO I don't know what is…
Dan Szymborski
oops sorry was getting 500 errors
fincampbell05
Red Sox probably already project for around 90 wins in 2027 even with departing FA, right? Very confused about all of this dooming from fans.
Dan Szymborski
probably a few wins under
cyanocitta
I've been following Suzuki since he was with Hiroshima, and thought his underlying numbers would translate well to MLB. In other words, not particularly Tsutsugo-esque. However, I do worry about the aging curve for a 32yo corner outfielder who could end up getting nine figures.
Dan Szymborski
yeah, but that's the case for most 32 yo cof
Kwanbelievable
who is your favorite power ranger?
Dan Szymborski
second Black Ranger because it's Johnny Yong Bosch who voices Joshua in the Trails series
ImKeithHernandez
Should Mets release Semien?
Dan Szymborski
I would
crew87
Does your girlfriend know what you do for a living? Always curious how fangraphs-y writers explain what they do.
Dan Szymborski
Oh, she understands. She's tagged along to a few FG things. But she couldn't tell you much about baseball or what I do beyong writing plus numbers.
war2d2
I’m really hoping “soda on toast” becomes a thing in SzimChats
bndj88
Towson High dedicated Randy Dase Field last week. A true legend! He was one of my LPP teachers too, and let's just say he viewed himself primarily as Coach Dase lol. Still, a giant and a worthy tribute.
Dan Szymborski
I had Mr. Dase for 10th-grade social studies
Dan Szymborski
I sent him an email congratulating him when he retired
crew87
have you been following pro wrestling at all lately?
Dan Szymborski
I'm always behind in the regular season
crew87
What can I do with sardines? They're supposed to be one of the healthiest fish for you, but struggling to come up with stuff besides "eat them plain."
Dan Szymborski
buttered toast
Seuss2004
I used to drink Mountain Dew: Code Red when it came out (I was in college), and people would ask what it tasted like. My standard answer was, 'red.' Nobody ever disagreed.
Dan Szymborski
It's abotu accurate
Willie Stargell
Thanks for a great year Dan! Any non-baseball plans or goals for the offseason you would like to share
Dan Szymborski
I need to clean out the storage room under the stairs
Dan Szymborski
and I'm thinking of getting a smaller server case for one of my servers, like a jonsbo n4
crew87
What are your instructions for the fangraphs staff playoff predictions? Is it "try to come up with a feasible scenario" or "your life depends on the outcome, who do you think wins each round?" Or is it left up to the individual
Dan Szymborski
"make your predictions"
richwp01
Dan, now that the White Sox blew up your Astros prediction, you want to revisit the Cleveland ALDS? The White Sox able to squeeze their pitching though with the extra off day?
Dan Szymborski
well yeah, since I had an impossible task!
richwp01
Dr Pepper has a strong Chicago connection (with the Official Drink fo the Bears and Soldier Field). Also, lots of neighborhood Pizza Places in Chicago do RC Cola.
maximus74
after the boston beatdown, seems like the yankees are gonna sleep walk into the WS. I just don't trust TB in the playoffs
war2d2
I certainly hope Suzuki flies under the radar, the Cubs need to prioritize resigning him in my opinion. I worry he gets priced out of their cheapo owner’s range and they wind up bringing back the smoldering husk of Ian Happ and calling it good.
Kwanbelievable
It's working now!
Kwanbelievable
Parker Messick just confirmed as Guardians G1 starter over Williams, thoughts?
Dan Szymborski
Don't think it's terrible
limron
Do you think there's still much edge in projection systems for fantasy, or just a disadvantage if you aren't using them? I've done a bit of work on team wins projection trying a different systematic approach than anything up at FG, got down to MAE 7.51 wins, and figured I'd just be better off using a composite of the major public systems in the end.
Dan Szymborski
I think everyone uses them, but I think HOW you use them will seaprate you
crew87
do you have any other blog subscriptions? like, what else do you read besides fangraphs?
Dan Szymborski
Well, first you have the papers and large sites (I subscribe to NYT and WaPo)
Dan Szymborski
I subscribe to BP
Dan Szymborski
substackwise, I subscribe to Sheehan, Carroll, Greenberg for baseball. For non-baseball, I sub to Yglesias, Silver, Fifth Column, and Central Air
Baseball Learner
When we say mid rotation innings water, how much war is that? Ordinally, is that a top 50 pitcher in baseball? Top 100?
Dan Szymborski
2ish
war2d2
Boil spaghetti, drain it but leave it kind of wet, dump a ton of olive oil, shaved parmesan, lots of lemon, and a tin of sardines and toss it violently about. It’s great.
Alby
Which Sibelius symphony should I start with?
Dan Szymborski
1, then 2, then 5
Dan Szymborski
Though START with the various symphonic poems with Sibelius
Dan Szymborski
And on that note, I won't test my luck and try to end this chat without anything crashing
