| 1:38 |
: Hey everybody, I screwed up the start time on the Jotcast platform. We’ll start at 11 PST as usual.
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| 2:00 |
: Alrighty, hello everybody. Let’s get going.
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| 2:00 |
: Drew Burress is having a great pro debut overall, but should I be worried about the sub-70% contact rate? Does he have the juice to succeed as a low contact guy?
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| 2:02 |
: I wouldn’t worry too much about the late-season cameo peripherals. Burress stopped playing for a couple months, got paid a ton of money, moved across the country, and started swinging a new type of bat. He struck out more than I’d have guessed but that’s a lot of change in a short amount of time, too many variables to make a huge adjustment to the forecast just yet.
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| 2:03 |
: With Josue de Paula having yet to strikeout in his first 4 MLB games, who is the prospect with the best plate discipline you have every scouted?
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| 2:03 |
: Amador. I still believe.
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| 2:03 |
: Will you be in AZ for any AFL Games? Who would you be most interested in seeing given the rosters just announced?
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| 2:04 |
: I will be there, probably toward the start of the league, still need to hammer out the details.
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| 2:05 |
: In no particular order, Nimmala, Briggs McKenzie, Zion Rose, Aroon Escobar, Braylon Payne, Bryce Rainer, Tate Southisene, Charles Davalan, Jhonny Severino. Plenty of others
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| 2:06 |
: Any dirt on Caden Hunter? Homie didn’t even get an FV grades pre-season, and then goes out there and cruises through 3 levels, with a nice little velo bump.
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| 2:08 |
: A good “wait, what?!” or “because you asked…” candidate. Lefty touching 98, need to dive into the breaking ball. Slider is playing like an out pitch so far…
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| 2:09 |
: How well do you think Tom Emanski’s training videos would hold up today?
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| 2:10 |
: Man, I have no idea. I suspect some of the defensive fundamental stuff would still be good for younger players but I would need to watch it again, it’s been decades.
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| 2:10 |
: How do you evaluate receiving at the catcher position? Is that a case where it’s metrics-based or does the eye test rule?
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| 2:12 |
: I’ll glance at the metrics, but there are a lot of variables, particularly at the lower levels — bad umpiring, pitchers with bad command, poor lighting, etc. — that makes it really tough for the numbers to evaluate that school. And, more importantly, the performance matters less than the traits. Does the player have a sturdy frame and a strong wrist? If yes, we can project on the receiving.
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| 2:12 |
: Pretty good year for AL Central rookies
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| 2:13 |
: No kidding. DeLauter, Jensen, McGonigle Murakami if you want to count him, and then Tristan Peters is hanging out there too.
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| 2:13 |
: And then all the exciting guys MN/CWS called up down the stretch. Exciting time for the division.
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| 2:13 |
: If I recall, Griffin was a very good but not superstar level prospect around this time a year ago. It was the off-season prospect updates that ranked him as elite. Is anyone else tracking like this in 2026?
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| 2:14 |
: We knew what we had pretty early on with PIT. Internal scouts were blown away pretty much right off the bat, and I was hearing the same from other scouts who’d come across him throughout the late spring/early summer.
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| 2:15 |
: One of the big advantages of having a pro scouting department is that you’re ahead of the curve on stuff like this relative to the public.
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| 2:15 |
: Any chance of seeing Quintero, Nimmala, or J Rojas in the Bigs next year?
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| 2:15 |
: Sure. Nimmala in particular, the ETA is absolutely 2027 at this point.
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| 2:16 |
: Top 3 shortstop defenders you’ve seen in MILB this year?
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| 2:17 |
: From in person looks, it was not a great year for scouting defensive shortstops. Capri Ortiz is not an exciting answer here but he can really pick it.
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| 2:17 |
: Saw Hammond a little in the spring, he’s up there
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| 2:18 |
: A lot of the others, the Kilen/Level/Celesten group, are potentially viable but not future Gold Glovers
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| 2:18 |
: A’s org just fired a ton of coaches and dev staff last week. Seems like a bad idea to do that right before Fall instructs, right? Probably clearing space for hires from the new GM next year but the timing feels off
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| 2:19 |
: If you don’t think those guys can help your players, probably best to not have them around, no?
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| 2:19 |
: It’s also better for the staff to know as soon as possible if they’re not coming back, gives them a better chance to find a job for next year.
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| 2:21 |
: Is Hagen Smith long-term future as Josh Hader or does he get a shot to start?
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| 2:21 |
: I’d put most of my chips on reliever at this point.
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| 2:22 |
: Which is not the same as saying “CWS would be out of their minds to stretch out Smith next year!!’
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| 2:24 |
: Do you keep tabs on post-grad guys as somewhat of a rubric for your performance? Any personal anecdote on a big time miss (either star or bust) from the last two years?
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| 2:25 |
: I keep track of everyone I’ve projected. The balance of “learning from hits/misses” and “not overreacting to one year’s performance” is a delicate one
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| 2:25 |
: Like, I loved Ezequiel Duran in the spring of 2023
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| 2:25 |
: And then he was awesome for three months
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| 2:25 |
: And was feeling great about that
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| 2:25 |
: And then he didn’t hit at all for two years
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| 2:25 |
: And now he’s a five-win player
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| 2:26 |
: It’s been a roller coaster and he’s a good reminder that sometimes talent needs time
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| 2:28 |
: Not sure if you read the mailbag articles that publish on Saturdays, but a hypothetical was put forward about baseball being like football and having separate squads for offence and defence. If that rule were to magically be put in place tomorrow what % of defensive players do you think would come from the minor leagues. I feel like most teams have multiple “if only this guy didn’t swing a wet noodle” players in the minors who would suddenly be MLB calibre if defence was the only consideration for them.
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| 2:29 |
: you’d see a fair number of minor league shortstops/center fielders playing around the diamond
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| 2:29 |
: It would be horrible for BABIP/average
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| 2:30 |
: Johnny Severino hit 30+ HRs and can fake it at SS and isn’t old. He ever become a guy?
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| 2:30 |
: Reports are middling. AA test looms large.
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| 2:30 |
: Hasn’t developed much of an approach yet
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| 2:31 |
: That might be some kind of starting rotation that Buffalo begins next season with…..
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| 2:31 |
: Yeah, sheesh. Bloss/Perry for sure, King probably not far behind. Dasan Hill with an outside shot to get there too…
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| 2:32 |
: Eric Booth is a pretty big guy for an 18 year old, esp one known for speed. Have you heard any concern over how he physically projects thru his 20s?
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| 2:32 |
: More excitement than concern on that score
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| 2:33 |
: Where do you see Murf and Taitn Gray’s power peaks landing?
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| 2:33 |
: Comfortably plus
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| 2:34 |
: 70 wouldn’t shock me in either case
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| 2:36 |
: So I understand that Jesús Báez has some flaws in his game and he almost certainly is going to have to move off of SS. But even if he was a future DH, 39 HRs and just a 16% K-rate as a 21 year old feels pretty remarkable.
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| 2:36 |
: He’s one who’s in line for a fresh eval
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| 2:37 |
: Keep in mind though, even though he hit 39 homers, his power is more AA than special
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| 2:39 |
: Took two months, but I’m finally here.
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| 2:39 |
: Hello Chris
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| 2:39 |
: (follow-up on the SS defense question) Does the “Kilen/Level/Celesten group” of not future Gold Glovers include Josuar Gonzalez?
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| 2:40 |
: Josuar is a potentially special defender but I barely saw him this spring, got dinged up sliding into second
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| 2:41 |
: Any concern about Jo Jo Parker’s power dip after being promoted to High A? He was still making contact, but not necessarily of the loud variety.
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| 2:41 |
: No, still projecting AA raw/game. He’s good
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| 2:42 |
: Jake Gelof looked pretty dang good with Tulsa this year. Safe to say he’s pushing the limits of that 40 FV?
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| 2:42 |
: He’s in the right spot
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| 2:42 |
: When will the prospect team take its first look at Asian players potentially coming to the States?
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| 2:43 |
: I should check with Eric on how we want to time that relative to other lists, but I imagine we’ll stick to what he’s done in previous years, so mid-late october?
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| 2:45 |
: kyle harrison got figured out or just a blip?
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| 2:45 |
: Velo has been down a little, that’s probably a factor
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| 2:48 |
: Did Slawinski’s stuff improve at all since the draft, or has he just been polished?
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| 2:49 |
: Little of both, he’s not overpowering but he’ll touch the mid-90s
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| 2:49 |
: any thoughts on Bazzana’s debut this year? had an up and down minors experience post draft with some injuries. think he sticks as an everyday 2B? or is a platoon/move to OF on the horizon?
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| 2:50 |
: Think we were in the right spot with him, projecting him as an everyday regular but not a star.
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| 2:50 |
: Which pitching characteristics most influence whether or not you view a prospect to have a likely future starters role.
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| 2:51 |
: Arm strength, athleticism/body control
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| 2:52 |
: Traits to develop quality secondaries (ability to spin or turn over a change, even if the pitch itself is inconsistent)
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| 2:52 |
: Who’s your favorite PCL performer right now who will continue to hit at the Majors? I think of that 2021 Reno team (Drew Ellis, Stu Fairchild, Daulton Varsho) and always get fooled by what’s real
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| 2:53 |
: The ones we ranked in the T100
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| 2:54 |
: I don’t mean that to sound snarky but we’re not hiding anything
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| 2:54 |
: Have you gotten a look at Easton Shelton? I understand he can barely hit but the power tool at least looks on par with an Andrew Fischer type
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| 2:55 |
: Definitely has power but I’m skeptical here
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| 2:56 |
: Eli Willits to AA for a fun weekend (195 wRC+) is a nice cap for what seems like a really good year for the Nats farm system. Is a 2027 debut on the table for him? He doesn’t turn 19 until December, but if he keeps rising …
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| 2:56 |
: If he gets stronger it’s very much in play. It might be anyway but if he’s still a ~100 mph EV90/~105-106 max guy it’s going to limit how much he can do at the plate
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| 2:57 |
: You can post huge numbers with little power in the minors in a way that’s very hard to replicate in the big leagues
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| 2:58 |
: Re the PCL question, I have a vague sense that you and EL are less reactionary than the twitter/online prospect community. If true, how far does that go – like how much would you internally already be considering moving guys up/down since the midseason update? How long does it take for you to start thinking about doing so?
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| 2:58 |
: We’ll make some adjustments in the next couple weeks and then again as we really dive into the lists.
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| 2:58 |
: We’re always monitoring
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| 2:59 |
: But I don’t want to just report the weather… If we make an adjustment, I want it to be because something changed/is different than what we wrote before.
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| 3:00 |
: and to be clear, this isn’t meant to be a commentary on anybody else, this is just my perspective on how I prefer to approach updates
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| 3:01 |
: what didn’t Fischer prove in Biloxi that kept him frk
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| 3:02 |
: reaching Nashville this year?
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| 3:03 |
: I’m not sure what MIL’s perspective was specifically but if they wanted to see if he could put the bat on the ball more often, that would be totally fair
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| 3:06 |
: owen hull is having the best High-A performance of any college bat??
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| 3:07 |
: Off the top of my head, yes
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| 3:07 |
: He’s been great
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| 3:08 |
: Did you see any particular causes for concern or optimism on Frias post trade, or more a case of a guy holding serve?
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| 3:09 |
: No new concerns
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| 3:09 |
: Sorry what do you mean by AA power? Is that a scouting grade or saying it somehow corresponds to the AA (ie Texas League) level?
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| 3:09 |
: Above average, sorry
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| 3:10 |
: Jesus Made has been very meh honestly this year, after a slightly hotter start. Does this take the shine off his status a bit? Or still so young, doesn’t matter? Just seems like you’d want a better season than average for the league, regardless of age.
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| 3:10 |
: For context, his wRC+ this year was 103… Jackson Chourio’s was 109 when he was a 19 year old in AA
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| 3:10 |
: And Made is a SS
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| 3:11 |
: Sometimes it goes that way
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| 3:12 |
: I get that it’s more reassuring when the numbers are there, but there are tons of good big leaguers who were great prospects even with good but not special topline minor league production.
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| 3:13 |
: I guess my question is if anyone is going to make the leap to a 65. Walcott or Gillen?
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| 3:13 |
: Walcott might, he’s freaky and I suspect Eric will go to bat for that.
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| 3:16 |
: Both Roldy Brito and Christian Arguelles were 50’d but struggling a bit as 19 year old’s. You still holding serve there or is there cause for concern?
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| 3:17 |
: I’ll look more deeply as we get to the Rox list but instinct is to hold
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| 3:17 |
: Brito in particular, saw him a few times in person, looks like the guy I really liked last year
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| 3:18 |
: Are there any open world prospects you think *could* be 70s at any point in the future
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| 3:19 |
: Sure. If, I don’t know, Grady Emerson grows into more power than expected and also is the hitter we think he is, he’s a candidate
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| 3:20 |
: 70 is where freaky athleticism meets skilled baseball player
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| 3:21 |
: Have you ever 80’d someone? Was it Bobby Witt if you have?
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| 3:21 |
: When I was with PIT, we had the A-D system
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| 3:21 |
: A was kind of a blend of 70 and 80 on the traditional scouting scale
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| 3:21 |
: And I A’d a handful of players
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| 3:23 |
: Going to shut it down today. Thanks for all the questions, we’ll go a little longer next week.
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