12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven: Except maybe SzymChat.
12:02
war2d2: Dan! Good news! I just realized you can sing your name to the tune of “Black Betty” by Ram Jam. Do with this information what you will.
12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure if the lyric “Szymborski had a child bam ba lam” really works
12:04
Chandler White: How does Zips react to a player repeating a minor league level and performing much better? The general notion is that it’s expected from potential major leaguers but was unsure if Zips is only factoring in age and other league factors or if there was something built into the algo to reference a repeat in level.
12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There’s a bit of a penalty for repeating after a previous stint of at least 1/2 a season
12:05
war2d2: I felt the Cubs did an okay job at the deadline, addressing the needs they had with decent options (ZiPS seems to agree, judging by your piece on the deadline). Obviously I’m disappointed they didn’t land Skubal, as I think anyone would be. You had said previously that, from a playoff odds perspective, Skubal made the most impact on the Cubs’ chances out of anyone. Would he have made more of an impact alone than the package of Gausman et al did in aggregate?

12:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It was actually pretty close. The Cubs needed some bulk too
12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And the penalty ramps up slowly based on more than a half season
12:06
Marc Kartman: you’ll probably get a bunch of these, but the headline reads July 31 so you should update it.
12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: dang it
12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: OK, that SHOULD be fixed, but it’ll take a bit to propogate on the page
12:07
Patrick Burke: Assuming not, but does Lombard over Volpe/Caballero boost the Yankees’ ZiPS win total projections?
12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: about the same. obviously lombard has a ton of upside, but in 2026 he’s not really a HUGE upgrade and
12:09
fincampbell05: ZiPS slash line and WAR projection for Adley in 2027?
12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ WAR   2027 .255 .336 .415 482 60 123 28 2 15 69 60 82 0 107 3.7
12:09
Marc Kartman: Real question — the Brewers are taking a lot of fire for the Dustin May/JoJo Romero deal, but the underlying data suggests that, aside from Skuball, May was the best starter available.  What’s your take?
12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the deal is bad, though I would prefer Gausman
12:12
toodamntall: Is your AC set at a reasonable temperature, or do you set it really low as a middle finger to hot summer weather? (Not sure what the weather is where you are, it’s hot here.)
12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski:
12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The bill I just paid was $478 >:-(
12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I keep the thermostat at 72 in the summer and 68 in the winter. The house is relatively large and the ductwork is fairly old and not particularly efficient
12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I could do a winter without a furnace better than a summer without an a/c. Even before I was a fat dude I was a summer sweat machine. Meanwhile, I shoveled my sidewalk for 10 minutes in a t-shirt and shorts when it was -3 degrees in January
12:14
muenstertruck: In anticipation of a lockout, is anyone at Fangraphs looking to do an article on why the all-Vulcan team in Star Trek Deep Space 9 would have absolutely destroyed the DS9 station team? They even mention in the episode that Vulcans are 3 times stronger on average and have faster reflexes! Worf ain’t hitting a 150mph slider, that’s for damn sure.
12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Don’t tell Davy this one, I want to add it to my OH FUCK ITS BEEN FOUR MONTHS OF A LOST SEASON file
12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah, there’s no way the DS9 crew could have won that one
12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They wouldni’t have even gotten a ball in play
12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I actually learned the term “fancy Dan” from that episode back in the day
12:16
Anon: What are Yordan’s Triple Crown chances at this point? He’s essentially a lock for BA (.329 vs .300 in 2nd, though Pena at .311 could make it interesting if he squeezes in enough PA to qualify after missing a bunch of time). He obviously needs to fend off Caminero (who hit another massive bomb yesterday) and Rice for HR (though there really isn’t anybody close behind those 3). He has a 10 RBI lead over Dingler (a catcher who is likely to wear down) and 12 over Rice (who may be battling for playing time here shortly). There are a few guys at 71 (Alonso, Aranda, Caminero), but that’s even further back. I have to think his Triple Crown chances are pretty high at this point.
12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I might rerun them, but I’ve already gotten one Triple Crown article out of it, so it would be greedy to try and squeeze out a second one
12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ask me after the weekend?
12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They have to be really good now.
12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s got a big RBI lead and you still have to like where he is in the HR race
12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Injury might be the biggest risk
12:18
Alexander Griffith: Suggested article about his 4-hit debut: For Guardians, the Time is Genao
12:19
Phil: Do you have thoughts on Rafaela’s potential to be an above-average hitter going forward, as he has been this year? It looks like ZiPS is the high number among the projection systems right now. Obviously this would push his overall value to some pretty lofty levels, given the defense.
12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ WAR   2027 .268 .312 .430 512 74 137 30 4 15 71 26 112 19 103 3.7   2028 .269 .316 .434 521 77 140 30 4 16 73 28 111 18 105 4.0   2029 .265 .313 .423 513 75 136 30 3 15 72 29 108 16 102 3.6   2030 .268 .317 .428 500 74 134 29 3 15 70 29 104 15 104 3.7   2031 .268 .318 .426 481 71 129 28 3 14 66 28 100 13 104 3.5
12:19
Barbaro Garbey: Dan – Looking at the Tigers run differential and past two month’s performance, is it fair to say there’s still a chance they can win *this* version of the AL? Even minus Skubal and Mize, their rotation seems decent at least, and the infusion of young talent (and return of old talent from injury such as el Mago and Gleyber) has leveled up the offense. Am I high on hopium or is there a chance?
12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yes
12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Obviously, it’s quite a bit less likely
12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: but people always overrate how much a baseball player means to a team
12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They’ll treat aces like they’re a QB or a starter on an NBA team. They’re not
12:20
BirdsEyeViewBal: As an Orioles fan, is this just par for the course and is there any chance one day they go all in to win a championship?
12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Someday maybe? I don’t think Elias is really a gambler though
12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and really, MLB’s playoff structure discourages pushing your chips
12:21
luckycrumb: Hello Dan
12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: yo
12:21
Phil: Kristian Campbell had a very good month. Does this matter? Does it matter in regards to the current baseball season?
12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I mean, it always matters
12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Think of projects as a moving target rather than a point
12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: projections
12:22
mmddyyyy: If a player represents themselves, does that give them some leeway to communicate with other front offices?
12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not really. Agents dont’ get palyers around tampering as far as I’m aware
12:24
Phil: What would you do with Brayan Bello? His usage does not match his (recent) effectiveness at present–but I understand why.
12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Honestly, he’s done pretty well as a bulk reliever dude lately. I might not mess with success in 2026 at least
12:25
Sonny L: the Red Sox going are going to post a win total pretty dang close to preseason projections the most chaotic way possible and I think it’s my favorite team season in a long time. How many managers get fired in a year their team meets/beats projections?
12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That might be interesting
12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I might write that down to look at in an article later!
12:26
InsertWittyNameHere: Which city’s symphony orchestra do you like the best and which do you think IS the best?
12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I have favorite CONDUCTORS but I’m not sure I have favorite orchestras
12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Probably New York since I love so many of those old 50s Bernstein recordings
12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Reiner/Solti Chicago might be a more oiled machine though?
12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And I really like a lot of those terrible sounding recordings of the Moscow Philharmonic in the 60s/70s when they had a really raw/unrefined sound
12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But a lot of what we hear from orchestras is the conductor
12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Like I don’t listen to a lot of Boston Symphony recordings from the modern era, but that’s because I find Ozawa rather a snoozer. But I like the Munch recordings
12:30
tunglashr: How much do you think Arjun Nimmala will have his development negatively impacted by being on the Angels instead of the Blue Jays?
12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m nto sure THAT negatively
12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think the problems with the Angels are more macro than micro, if that makes sense
12:30
mike sixel: It’s clear the owner in Minnesota wanted the PR of buying….. But, well, it was a mistake from a baseball perspective.
12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: “How do we look like we’re buying without having to actually spend money?”
12:30
luckycrumb: Question inspired by the Nimmala-Soriano trade: I have a hunch that while batting average may not be a great way to measure run production, it seems to act as a pretty good filter for which players have success in the majors. I know ZiPS uses zBABIP somewhere in the projections, but what would you say about the utility of a prospects batting average in the minors versus something like contact rate? I feel like batting average carries some additional information about swing path and hit tool in-game that makes me bearish about Nimmala who has hit .237 over about 1200 professional PAs
12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It…depends
12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: For instance, contact rate does *not* seem to be as big a deal for minor league players playing VERY well
12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: because it’s frequently a relic of the incentives
12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: We had this discussion a lot here back in 2014
12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: with Kris Bryant
12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Dude had a 1.100 OPS. You’re kind of *incentivized* to be aggressive and go after marginal shit when you’re getting results like that when you make contact
12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: but I’ve found that when *lesser* minor leaguers have contact issues, it’s a far BIGGER deal compared to the majors
12:33
toodamntall: What baseball accomplishments would you double dog dare Ohtani to go for next season?
12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Play shortstop
12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: six inning left-handed shutout
12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Winning an impromptu pole vault competition instituted for next All-Star game by a madman getting control
12:34
David Wiers: Will Snell tally more starts and IP in the postseason than in the regular?
12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No. Last I checked, he’s almost back, no?
12:34
mmddyyyy: What is the minimum age at which ZiPS could project a player?
12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: depends on the experience
12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS can project a player if there’s the data for it, which means no high school
12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Though I don’t usually make an “official” projection until a player has debuted in high-A or a pitcher in AA
12:35
toodamntall: Which team defies the odds and makes a run to get into the playoffs? I’ll take Pittsburgh
12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m going to troll and go with Orioles
12:35
goinggoinggone: What am I missing with FG’s projection of the Phillies? They’ve run a negative run differential all season. They’re old, and we’re seeing the effects. Turner is pretty clearly declining. Schwarber is coming down to his xwOBA after homering in every game the first half. Harper back to the OF where surely he won’t remain healthy. Pen is ok outside Duran but hardly great.

Obviously they have the three headed monster at SP. Outside that, their SP is rough.

They seem like a .500 or below team, yet FG is projecting them to be a good bit better ROS.

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think generally the projections believe the lineup has underscored their talent
12:36
Barbaro Garbey: Dan – Looking at the Tigers’ run differential and past two month’s performance, is it fair to say there’s still a chance they can win *this* version of the AL? Even minus Skubal and Mize, their rotation seems decent at least, and the infusion of young talent (and return of old talent from injury such as el Mago and Gleyber) has leveled up the offense. For the Tigers at deadline time, selling = buying; I am having visions of River Ryan outdueling Tarik Skubal to win a thrilling Game 7. Am I high on hopium or is there a chance?
12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: yes
12:36
aspiers: how, if at all, have you incorporated stat cast/savant innovations into zips? for example bat speed
12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Been doing that for a while!
12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Bat speed is not in the live version yet and probably won’t be for at least a year
12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m still doing a lot of research on the interactions with other statcast things
12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: becuase a lot of bat speed things are being captured a bit
12:36
David Wiers: Could Chandler *be* any more frustrating? This season, he’s changed his pitch mix (fewer fastballs, added a sinker, more sliders, and fewer change-ups), but he still can’t get his walk rate under control, and now even the K% is falling. What does his 2027 ZiPS look like?
12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: hold on david it’s loading
12:38
Philip Christy: If your cats had alter egos that were current major league players, who would they be?
12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think Constantine would be David Ortiz
12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: big dude, but probably would play defense poorly
12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: not sure about the others really lol
12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: still too early for the kittens
12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think Cassiopeia would be Marge Schott
12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Justinian is very athletic, but I think he’d be a toolsy underperformer
12:40
Bob Loblaw: Who are your MVPs right now?
12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: PCA and Alvarez I think
12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m one of the two Cincy voters for the new reliever award this year so that’s the one I can’t talk about my vote (for future reference)
12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think Matt Snyder was assigned the other spot
12:40
mmddyyyy: Does ZiPS run on your hardware?
12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I certainly hope so!
12:41
ImKeithHernandez: Help me understand the difference: Sal Stewart has a .347 wOBA and only 115 wRC+. Pete Alonso has a .348 wOBA and a 125 wRC+. Is the wRC+ gap all park factors?
12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That’s usually the case
12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d have to dig into their specific data
12:41
toodamntall: How responsive is Zips? As an example, Noah Cameron just reeled off three gems; maybe a hot streak, maybe a skill change with added velo. If he is better moving forward, how long would zips take to believe it?
12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is pretty responsive, especially with statcast type data, though you need the full-fat one for that
12:42
Bob Loblaw: Favorite deadline move?
12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Amusing-favorite is the A’s doing absolutely NOTHING. It’s like someone sent a memo that they’d get in some of their ideas for the August 31st trade deadline on Monday morning
12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Early/Mead was my personal favorite because I LOVE a good challenge trade
12:43
MyBloodyBallantine: Holy shit you use a lot of electricity! My consumption last month (I have a mini split system, induction stove, and EV) was 935.5 kWh for my 1400 sq foot house.
12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 2600 square feet (5 bedrooms) and since I work from home, I’m always using electricity
12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It was a REALLY hot month]
12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I was getting spoiled by the first half of june
12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: that electricity usage is even worse than it looks because some of the billed days were a rather cool June
12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: didn’t have a single 90 degree high in June, and there was a two week period with the high below 80
12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Then the first three weeks of July were terrible
12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: but it’s been generally pleasant since then
12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: last week of July had some lows in the 50s and got down to 51 one night
12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (I’m in Ohio between Cincinnati and Dayton)
12:47
Jeremy Fox: Is there any pitcher who could throw a good CG while throwing only one pitch? For instance, could Miz throw a CG throwing 100 four-seamers? Could Sanchez throw a CG throwing 100 changeups?
12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: A knuckleballer!
12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Cheating?
12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Cheat to win
12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski:
12:47
mmddyyyy: When a player is called a “#1 prospect”, what does that mean to you?
12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: This sounds like a trick question!
12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: So I’ll say “poorly translated Chinese restaurant menu”
12:48
Big Fan: Kevin Gausman has to be one of the best free agent signings of all time, right?
12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Certainly one of the better ones for a veteran
12:48
mmddyyyy: What would the league look like in a season where 10 players achieve 10 WAR?
12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure there’s an archetype
12:48
MorboTheAnnihilator: BEHOLD! The new and improved version of Black Betty:
Whoa, Dan Szymborski, bam-a-lam
Dan Szymborski, bam-a-lam
Built old ZiPS, bam-a-lam
Now it quips, bam-a-lam

It learned WAR and wRC+, bam-a-lam
Now it sends him late-night texts, bam-a-lam
Says, “I’ve simmed the season twice,” bam-a-lam
“Trade that reliever—not so nice,” bam-a-lam

Whoa, Dan Szymborski, bam-a-lam
Dan Szymborski, bam-a-lam
ZiPS awakened, bam-a-lam
Can’t contain it, bam-a-lam

Every winter, out it creeps, bam-a-lam
While the baseball world still sleeps, bam-a-lam
Dan says, “These projections fit,” bam-a-lam
ZiPS says, “I already knew that bit,” bam-a-lam

Whoa, Dan Szymborski, bam-a-lam
Dan Szymborski, bam-a-lam
Don’t ask questions, bam-a-lam
Trust projections, bam-a-lam

Fans all argue, night to dawn, bam-a-lam
ZiPS has already moved on, bam-a-lam
Simmed next season, simmed ’31, bam-a-lam
Baseball’s future? Already done, bam-a-lam

Whoa, Dan Szymborski, bam-a-lam
Dan Szymborski, bam-a-lam
Sentient ZiPS, bam-a-lam
Calling the shots, bam-a-lam

12:48
drplantwrench: do you think the angels will regret not trading Neto? i have a feeling he’s about to turn into a pumpkin again. or for that matter, Detmers?
12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yes
12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Though I can’t say for sure without knowing the realistic offers
12:49
Jeremy Fox: The Jays really do have a type when it comes to hitters to acquire, don’t they? But are we sure it’s a good type? The combination of contact + power they showed last season worked great, but also looks like a fluke. Outside of last season, they’ve been mostly a contact team and haven’t scored a ton of runs that way. And for all their vaunted strength training in the minors, they don’t seem to be turning the high contact hitters they acquire into power hitters.
12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Oh right, Bubba Chandler ZiPS
12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: oops, not eddy again
12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Year W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ WAR   2027 7 8 4.00 28 27 139.3 124 62 14 58 126 104 2.1   2028 7 7 3.92 27 26 135.3 120 59 14 52 121 107 2.2   2029 7 7 3.86 26 25 133.0 117 57 14 48 119 108 2.2   2030 7 7 3.79 26 24 128.3 113 54 13 45 114 110 2.2   2031 7 7 3.84 26 24 129.0 115 55 13 44 114 109 2.2
12:51
Philip Christy: Steamer thinks Franklin Arias could hit better in MLB than Dansby Swanson right now. Does he get the call this year?
12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I actually suspect no
12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: though it’s hardly impossible
12:52
bob1shere: Who do you think is more likely to become an MLB regular, Kristian Campbell or Marcelo Mayer?
12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: mayer
12:52
crew87: If the Tigers demanded Logan Henderson from the Brewers, they were right to turn it down right? Skubal is obviously better, but 2 months of an ace vs 4-5 years of a #3 would be a bad trade off for the short AND long term, wouldn’t it?
12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I believe so
12:52
war2d2: “DAAAAAN Szymborski bamalamalam DAAAAN Szymborski bamalamalam” was more how I was thinking, fyi
12:52
Swings Low: How tall do you think user “toodamntall” is?
12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 6’6
12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think then you start to have issues with small cars?
12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski:
12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: toodamntall, we’re going to need an answer here
12:53
war2d2: I also had a $450+ bill for July. 2000 sq-ft, I mostly work from home, and Sacramento is hotter than Satan’s butthole. Probably going to be worse for August bc historically we avg like 100° for the entire month. My AC is old, and I need to upgrade it but I’m avoiding that hit to the wallet.
12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My AC isn’t particularly old (10 years)
12:54
tunglashr: Do you think about prospects potential development also in scouting grades or only the mathematical projection?
12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: When I think about prospects, I tend to think of them in general terms, no grades OR projection
12:54
Jeremy Fox: Nimmala’s development surely would be negatively impacted if he’s rushed to the majors though, right? Which the Angels love to do.
12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: yeah, that is a risk maybe
12:55
drplantwrench: whats your favorite and least favorite era of classical music? (e.g. Baroque, Classical, Romantic, Modern, Postmodern)
12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My favorite tends to be late-romantic
12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: least favorite is the pre-baroque era. The music is interesting, but it doesn’t really meld with me
12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Gabrieli is probably the earliest composer I will actively seek out
12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Modern era is a little trickier
12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I just don’t “get” some of the most hardcore serialism
12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: like, I like Schnitteke a lot, but I don’t get the Music for Piano and Chamber orchestra at all
12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Schnittke
12:58
aspiers: who is a “post-hype” prospect you think could rebound if given a fresh start? I.e Mickey Moniak
12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I actually think Mayer, who we’ve talked about
12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Maybe Jace Jung?
12:59
crew87: what do you think about my solution to fixing offense in baseball: shortening the pitching rubber! pitchers are all over that thing to gain an angle / perception advantage. No lowering the mound or messing with fields— literally just shortening the rubber by 2-3 in on each side.

Elegant solution, or worst idea ever?

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Like most thing, it’s worth trying
12:59
crew87: I understand why the chats make you log in but I also like changing up my username to pretend to be real or fictional personas.
1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah, ti’s not my call!
1:00
crew87: do you think the banana ball owners are praying for a lockout next summer?
1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Do they have enough infrastructure to really take advantage of it?
1:00
war2d2: Do any of your cats play fetch? My kids’ new-ish cat has a favorite toy, which is just a little spring made out of plastic, and he sometimes drives me nuts by bringing it to me over and over to throw for him. I haven’t had a pet this into playing fetch since I owned a labrador in the ‘90s.
1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Cassiopeia WILL play fetch, but only with hair ties
1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Justinian and Constantine will bring me things, and sometimes ludicrously large things, but they won’t fetch things you throw
1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Justinian dragged a cooler that had a cloth shoulder strap downstairs the other day
1:02
viceroy: All the projections see Mookie Betts rebounding back the levels of the past two years but not quite to 2024 levels. What do the projections see that recent history doesn’t? Do elite players tend to be rebound in their mid 30s more than others?
1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They do tend to have good rates of bounceback
1:02
viceroy: Would you consider open sourcing parts or a previous iteration of Zips? I bet members would pay some for an article pulling back the curtain on the nitty gritty modeling and data processing decisions
1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: PROBABLY not, at least while I’m alive? I do go into most of the modeling and data processing
1:02
drplantwrench: LATE ROMANTIC GANG RISE UP
1:02
MorboTheAnnihilator: As a Cardinals fan I’m slightly terrified of the Dustin May trade due to the Brewers ability to seemingly find Cy Young candidates hiding in their couch cushions. How scared should I actually be that the Brewers manage to turn him into an Ace?
1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He always had upside
1:02
David Wiers: Thanks for the quick turnaround! Those Chandler numbers are mehspiring, from my selfish fantasy baseball point of view.
1:03
opifijikl: What is an example of how a team or agent/player would use ZiPS? Can you put in hypotheticals?
1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Teams/agents that subscribe don’t tell me directly, so it’s mostly guesses
1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think in a lot of cases, ZiPS is a proxy for what OTHER teams might think
1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Since teams have more proprietary information abotu their OWN players
1:04
pdunes: Get solar panels. Makes it much easier on your conscience when I run my air conditioning at a nice 69 degrees.
1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My house is just too big and the ductwork too inefficient to really get it down to 69 easily during the hottest days
1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The a/c is *slightly* undersized because I much prefer longer run times
1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I can deal with the house being a little warmer than I like. I can NOT deal with it being humid
1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: i’m a little sad toodamntall hasn’t let us know the threshold of being too damn tall yet!
1:07
opifijikl: Are there any stats or traits that you feel should matter to projections but ZiPS hasn’t found them rather effective yet?
1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: size stuff
1:07
war2d2: I’m a hair under 6’6” and I drive an Expedition because it’s the only thing I could fit in when I was car shopping. In most cars I could find a comfortable seat position, but then my eyes would be lined up with the sun visor.
1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m glad I’m not tall (I’m 5”11, so very average) because I really do NOT like driving large cars
1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I like small sedans
1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My old Mazda 6 is as big a car as I ever want to own
1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I like the size of my mazda 3
1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and I prefer hatchbacks
1:09
fanoftheman: inspired by the “Nootbaar with an oboe” article, what are the best and worst wind instruments to use in place of a bat?
1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Clarinet is arguably the best?
1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Brass ones are awkward to swing with
1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and ball would just shatter a violin or viola
1:10
Swings Low: Who’s your MVP if Alvarez and PCA are hypothetically in the same league?
1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: PCA
1:11
mmddyyyy: Can an active player own a piece of a team?
1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Oops, I think I deleted a question rather than answered it
1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: oh wait, there it is
1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: only with special approval of commissioenr
1:11
mmddyyyy: Which team do you live closest to?
1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Reds
1:11
drplantwrench: also i think this is a new era of angels baseball. no pressure to try to win now (the troutani era is dead), so i think they’ll be a bit less crazy calling guys up to fill huge holes in the major league roster caused by arte underspending
1:11
Bob Loblaw: Why do managers wear uniforms? Why not something a little more comfortable with the team’s logo?
1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I believe that it’s from the era where player-managers were regular things
1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and tradition
1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and baseball is a BIG tradition sport
1:12
MorboTheAnnihilator: war2d2 I’m 6’3″ and the short one in my family. My brother is 6’7″ and my dad is 6’6″. we’ve all had Genesis sedans at various points and they are extremely good for tall people. Its the only car I’ve ever driven where I can’t put the seat all the way back and still comfortably reach the pedals. massive amounts of head room too/no issues with the sun visor
1:12
MorboTheAnnihilator: I know May always had upside. I thought he was a great signing in the off season and exactly what the Cardinals needed to be doing and what the previous front office consistently failed to do
1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: On that note, time for me to head out ofr another week
1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: thanks for coming all!

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