| 2:01 |
: Hello everybody
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| 2:01 |
: Some housekeeping
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| 2:01 |
: I wrote about Manuel Pena so that people would (hopefully) stop asking about him in the chat: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/because-you-asked-evaluating-manuel-pena/
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| 2:02 |
: In about 30 minutes, I also have a new series starting where I take a look at the guys whose performance has most deviated from where I had them projected this offseason
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| 2:02 |
: I’m pretty excited about this. First up is Brandon Valenzuela, I’ll link out to it when it goes live
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| 2:02 |
: I’ve also got a Braves trade deadline/prospect list re-order in the hopper, that should run tomorrow or Thursday
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| 2:03 |
: Finally, Eric and I are working furiously on a T100 update. The list itself is just about done, we’re building some supplementary content around it and making our final orderings. That will also go live soon, possibly tomorrow.
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| 2:03 |
: Okay, let’s chat
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| 2:03 |
: The vibe around the Mets farm system hasn’t been great this year. Do you agree it’s been a down your for them overall? If so, why don’t think that is? And any danger of it becoming a pattern?
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| 2:03 |
: Ewing and Benge have launched successfully, so that’s a big win.
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| 2:04 |
: The upper level pitching has stalled in a disappointing way
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| 2:04 |
: Wenninger and Tong don’t look great
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| 2:05 |
: Obviously they dealt from strength in the winter, and so with the grads, it looks a little thin right now. I’m overall not worried about their ability to develop talent.
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| 2:05 |
: White Sox had largest bonus pool and 1-1. Did they end up with a top 3 draft? What were your thoughts on the trade for pick 34?
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| 2:06 |
: I don’t know if it was top 3, they got Roch so it’s already pretty good. I liked the trade concept. Was Thome a slight reach there? Maybe, but it seems like they really like the player.
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| 2:07 |
: Good value in the two picks after that
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| 2:07 |
: Arrows are up on Dax Kilby? Has he overcome the prior injury concerns he had coming into the season? And does that make him solid trade bait?
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| 2:07 |
: He has four plate appearances, how could the arrow possibly be up
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| 2:07 |
: It’s great that he’s on the field
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| 2:07 |
: Let’s leave it there for now
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| 2:08 |
: How high would you run Angeibel Gomez up a set of updated rankings right now?
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| 2:08 |
: 
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| 2:08 |
: I hear a bunch of talk about how the ball in the minors is exaggerating EVs and power numbers. This is used to generate some skepticism for power jumps like Franklin Arias’, for example. But his wRC is great, and that’s adjusted to league environment – is the suggestion that it disproportionately helps guys with elite hit tools?
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| 2:09 |
: It seems like the drag change is substantial. I don’t know if it’s inflating EV’s, I suspect either no or not much based on how many minor leaguers have either maintained or only slightly augmented their measurable power year over year.
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| 2:09 |
: Baseball card numbers are going to be inflated: homers, slug, etc.
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| 2:10 |
: My hypothesis is that guys with good hit tools and fringy power derive the most benefit from it w/respect to things like homers, slug, even wRC+
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| 2:10 |
: Jake Bloss…still a top 100, 50 FV guy based on performance YTD? Overall numbers don’t look great due to a couple of rough starts, but i’ve read the stuff looks to be back.
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| 2:10 |
: Yes, he’ll still be on there. Stuff looks good, feel for location is a work in progress.
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| 2:11 |
: Arm strength is back
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| 2:11 |
: Braves POBO Alex Anthopoulus gave a radio interview today and said there’s one guy in the system who’s not “untouchable”, but is in the next tier. Do you think that’s Hartman? Southisene?
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| 2:11 |
: I’d imagine it’s Hartman
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| 2:11 |
: Spoiler, he’s going to be the top Brave
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| 2:12 |
: Good afternoon Brendan: I’m in a deep (16) 12 keeper points league and we have seven slots for minor league prospects. Two are good: Jesus Made and Ethan Holliday should help me next season. Ronny Cruz I keep cuz I’m a Nats fan. It’s your opinion on Tyler Bell and Chris Hacopian that I need. Thanks!
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| 2:12 |
: Not a fantasy expert by any means, but when in doubt I’d take the Rockie
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| 2:12 |
: Rocky?
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| 2:12 |
: Mariners Josh Caron took a large step forward in results but underlying contact data looks similar if not a bit worse. Anything interesting there or just a guy elevating the ball in a small park.
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| 2:12 |
: Third catcher prospect
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| 2:13 |
: What are the matches of draftee to organization you are most excited about in terms of development skill sets/upside potential?
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| 2:13 |
: Great question. Blair to TB, Curiel to PIT jump out immediately
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| 2:13 |
: At what point should I just not care about a prospects walk rate because their swing rate is so low? I’m staring at Gillen’s 41 percent rate at High A. What’s the cutoff here, like 44 percent?
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| 2:14 |
: It depends on the player, a fair bit lower than that for guys with big pop and a lot of present production, since they’re probably going to get pitched around.
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| 2:14 |
: I don’t have a percentage in mind, really, it’s a sliding scale
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| 2:16 |
: You mentioned before the draft that you’d be watching what kind of pitchers the Angels draft. Obviously they went position player heavy at the top of the draft, but is there anything you were able to glean from the pitchers they did take?
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| 2:16 |
: The way the draft fell, it’s a little tough to read too much into it given how long they went before they took a pitcher only. I guess Trevor Hansen doesn’t seem like the kind of guy they’d have gone out of their way to draft in years past.
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| 2:17 |
: Elmer Rodriguez Cruz hasn’t looked awesome in his cups of tea in the majors. Does that effect his prospect status and is he trending down?
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| 2:17 |
: Holding steady. Sinker is a monster GB generator, needs to throw a few more strikes.
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| 2:17 |
: What are the key things you’d like to see from Juneiker Caceras post promotion?
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| 2:18 |
: The crux of his profile is the hit tool. Every level renews the “is the bat to ball good or special?” question
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| 2:18 |
: So, that
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| 2:19 |
: It is August 4th, 2026. You are Kevin Alcantara. To whom have you been traded?
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| 2:19 |
: Hmm. Angels.
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| 2:19 |
: The MLB propaganda commercial it runs about “fairness” is pretty fantastically transparent, but it also gives a window into how deep the owners are dug in on this. I am skeptical about a whole season being cancelled, for a number of reasons, I am expecting baseball to start approximately June 17th next year. What is your sense of things? (This may be a wee bit more than a chat q)
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| 2:19 |
: “We listen to our fans, especially when they regurgitate the talking points we advertise to them”
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| 2:19 |
: You don’t have to take this seriously
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| 2:20 |
: As for the start date, I read the March 24th opening day announcement as a sign that we’ll actually start March 31st
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| 2:20 |
: I was wondering if you would comment or could comment on the success the Pirates have had in selecting their pitchers. Skenes, Ashcraft, Jones, Chandler,, and now a 19 year old phenom in the minors. As a past scout, did you have any degree of influence on their selections. What stands out in observing guys all tossing 90 with past success?
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| 2:21 |
: I was a pro scout, so I had nothing to do with those guys. But on both the pro and amateur side, the acquisition and development pipeline is humming along really nicely. The org does very well with finding and developing arms.
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| 2:22 |
: More specifically, they’re good at broadening a pitcher’s arsenal and helping guys get stronger.
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| 2:23 |
: So what’s the deal with Manuel Pena? Any thoughts?
(sorry, it had to be done) |
| 2:23 |
: Joe West tosses OddBall Herrera
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| 2:24 |
: Zach Root is putting up some pretty impressive numbers in A+. Recognizing that he wasn’t on your preseason Picks to Click article…is he Clicking anyway?
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| 2:24 |
:
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| 2:26 |
: How would you assess the Red Sox’s underslotting and chasing HS players with the cash in the 3rd and mid rounds?
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| 2:26 |
: Valid approach
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| 2:26 |
: Should the Giants target particular positions at the deadline or just the best available prospects?
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| 2:27 |
: Within reason, best available. It’s not quite the draft though, if they’re dealing with, I don’t know, Cleveland, Ralphy Velasquez is maybe worth a tick less to them than he would be otherwise given Eldridge
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| 2:28 |
: Re: Bloss, it looks like his ability to locate is worse (or possibly not all the way back) but his stuff is, if anything, -better- than pre-injury. Is that a fair assessment?
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| 2:29 |
: I’d give guys returning from TJ a lot of grace on location/feel in that first year back, so yes, it’s not great right now but that’s something I’d be patient with. Stuff/arm strength looks great, he’s not working all that deep, so that’s potentially part of it. Nothing that would sway my grades one way or the other yet.
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| 2:30 |
: When you see a skinny college player, how do you determine “this is just gonna be a small guy” vs “this is a guy who has a shot to fill out”?
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| 2:32 |
: It’s a feel thing. You’d like to see broad shoulders and some width to the ankles and wrists, you’d like to see what mom and dad look like… it’s more art than science.
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| 2:32 |
: Brendan! Appreciate all you do! The draft coverage was awesome this year, loved the live chat (until they booted you). I’ve missed the last couple chats because they expect me to do the work I’m paid to do during chat hours, which seems rude to me. The last time I made it I asked if Hartshorn seemed like a possible pop-up guy, and you said you hoped to get eyes on him (at the futures game? maybe?). Any news or still on the to-do list?
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| 2:33 |
: He’s going to be on the T100. Big power, corner profile. He’s matured physically very quickly, in ways both good and a little concerning.
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| 2:33 |
: Not a prospect but how can someone like Curtis Mead hit for a lot more power by slowing down his swing speed by 2 mph? Over swinging before?
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| 2:33 |
: That would be one way.
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| 2:34 |
: Think about the difference between statcast bat speed and the way scouts have traditionally used the term. To use a ridiculous example, you could probably increase the statcast bat speed by Happy Gilmore’ing it, but it wouldn’t really help you hit.
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| 2:34 |
: And to be clear, this is no knock on measurable bat speed, which is important and a valuable thing to know
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| 2:35 |
: It’s important, it’s just not everything
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| 2:35 |
: Is David Davalillo okay? Started the year pitching pretty well in AA, then completely lost control in AAA, and now his last three starts have been complex, A+, complex. Is it common for pitching prospects to jump around this frequently with command issues, or would this be related to managing a potential injury?
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| 2:36 |
: I’m concerned. It’s not unusual for pitchers to struggle with the big league ball the first time they’re exposed to it — I had a source mention that overhand slot guys seem to struggle with it more than others, which is fascinating — but he’s also been sitting in the low-90s some outings. He doesn’t look quite right.
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| 2:36 |
: As a follow up , what are the statistical things we might see that would help differentiate good bat to ball from special?
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| 2:37 |
: Contact rate and iz contact rate, but I think watching him would give a better indication than the numbers. Is he still adjusting his bat path and making contact with all sorts of pitches in all locations? Is he still seamlessly making mid-flight adjustments? Is he able to do it against the very best arms he’s facing?
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| 2:39 |
: If the draft had happened on Sunday instead of Saturday, how many picks in the first round do you think would have ended up being the same? 100%? Or are there true 50-50 picks that would disrupt the entire order if a team flips a different mental coin?
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| 2:40 |
: I think it’s more a case where, if the draft was a day later, all of the work and prep would have started a day later vs. everybody has been fully prepped for weeks and are letting late-breaking signals shift strategy
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| 2:40 |
: if that makes sense
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| 2:40 |
: A baseball friend talked about when the Rockies drafted Dollander he cringed not because of Coors but because it was a religious, straight-laced org and a kid from a major party school and a “brash” program. That seems like a terrible over-generalization to me but are there ever real cases where amateurs and orgs misalign to the point where the org won’t take the kid even if he’s BPA?
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| 2:40 |
: Taking Dollander out of this completely, there are cases where player and org don’t align well.
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| 2:41 |
: There is team context to “best player available”
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| 2:41 |
: Do you tend to get more questions about particular orgs? I wonder if you see any patterns – Braves fans care more, the top systems get more engagement, the biggest markets naturally have the most interest, etc.
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| 2:43 |
: There are orgs where fans seem less invested in prospects than others. Media market is a big factor obviously. I maybe get more Braves and Mariners questions than I’d have guessed… For whatever reason, seems like there aren’t as many from SFG and SDP fans.
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| 2:44 |
: Lots of “reliever risk” discussion around Liam Doyle and Jarlin Susana. Obviously, Susana has to get healthy and back on the mound first, but do you expect their teams to give them every chance to start or is there a fast track to RP ahead of them?
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| 2:44 |
: Every chance to start
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| 2:45 |
: Hey, the Brandon Valenzuela piece is live: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/wait-what-brandon-valenzuelas-breakout/
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| 2:45 |
: I’m excited for that one
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| 2:45 |
: Is Braylon Doughty a top 100 guy now?
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| 2:45 |
:
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| 2:46 |
: The Mariners are known for being great at developing pitchers. Less so hitters. Why would that be? The makeup of their minor league coaching staff? Their player acquisition focus/methodology? Or, put a slightly different way, why have they been so bad at developing bats relative to pitchers?
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| 2:47 |
: Are they bad at it? Cole Young is playing well, Emerson went from HS to the big leagues in less than three years, two more T100 guys knocking on the door in Tacoma…
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| 2:48 |
: That said, acquisition and development is hard. There are only so many good players. There are lots of teams trying to find and build the good ones. To do that, you need talented people in the front office, good scouts, quality coaches, etc. It’s like a Germanic board game, you only have so many resources and you inevitably are going to be stronger in some areas than others.
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| 2:49 |
: There are a lot of reasons for that, one of which is if your org is showing a competence for acquiring or developing a certain type of skill or player, clubs that are not good at those things are going to try to hire coaches/coordinators/employees/etc. away from your org.
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| 2:50 |
: Who the heck is Tyron Guerrero? His Fangraphs page looks like an international journeyman who has been bad in every country where he has mostly not pitched. The guy on my TV is an unhittable strikeout monster. Is this an identical twin prank? More seriously, did you have him on your radar as a candidate for a triumphant return?
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| 2:50 |
: Him throwing strikes is one of those things I need to see with my own eyes to belive, he was a 20 command guy forever
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| 2:51 |
: Speaking of post-TJ guys, would AJSS still get a 50 FV if he hadn’t graduated?
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| 2:51 |
: Yes
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| 2:53 |
: I just realized that Tyron Guerrero is the same guy who couldn’t throw strikes for the marlins half a decade ago, I thought he was a totally different random reliever coming out of no where to throw 102
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| 2:53 |
: It’s insane
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| 2:53 |
: Do the Twins, or other teams, keep Jenkins down all year, so he’s not in the 40 man of there’s a stoppage? Or because, in this case, he might win rookie of the year in their mind?
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| 2:53 |
: I suspect he’ll be up soon
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| 2:53 |
: Cedric De Grandpre was promoted to Gwinnett coming off of a strong 4-5 starts. Any movement for him on the Braves list?
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| 2:54 |
: Yes he’ll be on the list
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| 2:54 |
: It’s mostly not a complete re-eval… More shuffling some guys at the top, accounting for grads, placing the draft guys… But there will be 3-4 adds from the HM section, including CDG
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| 2:55 |
: Polo and Drake too
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| 2:55 |
: Have you heard any reports at all on Michael Arroyo’s defense in left field this year? I haven’t really come accross anything, and that defensive value seems like a pretty big factor on if he’s a positionless bat or someone who could be a real everyday player going forward
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| 2:55 |
: Let me get back to you in two weeks, I’ll see him in TAC next week.
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| 2:55 |
: That said, the glove is only going to help so much here. He’ll hit enough to play a lot or he won’t.
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| 2:55 |
: BG, do you think we’ll see a day 2 draft recap?
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| 2:56 |
: With everything else going on, probably not but don’t quote me on that
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| 2:57 |
: What would you do in the Blue Jays shoes? If you say sell what type of haul could they realistically get at the deadline, enough to make them a top 15 farm?
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| 2:57 |
: Next ten days are going to be big for them, if I was TOR I’d be planning for all contingencies.
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| 2:57 |
: Big lift for the office and scouting groups
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| 3:00 |
: It’s tough for me to square the Mariners’ reputation as pitching development geniuses with the fact that they haven’t developed a single quality pitching prospect from their international scouting efforts in recent years. They’ve had great results with college guys and Sloan looks very good, but they sign dozens of pitchers every year from Latin America and not one of them has cracked the top-30 in the past few years in a shallow system. Thoughts?
|
| 3:00 |
: That’s very picky
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| 3:00 |
: They’ve drafted and developed, what, four mid-rotation starters? Five?
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| 3:01 |
: With two of the three best pitching prospects hanging out in the upper minors?
|
| 3:02 |
: “Aaron Judge… he’s alright, but he doesn’t really triple all that often.”
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| 3:02 |
: who’s better at baseball right now today, franklin arias or trevor story or marcelo mayer or IKF
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| 3:03 |
: If only it were that easy… I would guess Arias but it’s completely reasonable to play IKF
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| 3:03 |
: You wouldn’t touch a thing if you were Boston right now
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| 3:03 |
: Ive returned to follow up on my Rafe Perich and Carter Graham question from last week, about them being legit or not
|
| 3:03 |
: Thank you for following up
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| 3:03 |
: Carter, obviously big power, line to line, measurably 55/6 range
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| 3:04 |
: Patient/passive line, low swing rate with a big jump in chase with two strikes
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| 3:05 |
: Open stance and stays open, I have concerns about his plate coverage. He can make contact on pitches away from him but all of his swing and miss is on the outer third
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| 3:05 |
: Pitch rec is okay, not getting eviscerated by spin but whiff rate doubles on it compared to the FB, or at least it has in AA thus far
|
| 3:06 |
: Interesting player, arrow up, enough questions going forward that I’d put him in the 40/40+ bucket for now
|
| 3:07 |
: How many DSL players will make the new Top 100? How many could it be before it started to bring shame to the stateside player pool?
|
| 3:07 |
: We have one in there now, have talked about another 2-3. Which feels normal for this time of year.
|
| 3:08 |
: Do you know if Devin Taylor’s defense has improved at all since entering pro ball? Pretty much everyone says the bat should play but the defense is that bad that it puts a question mark on his profile.
|
| 3:08 |
: It’s a poor glove. Bat only profile.
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| 3:08 |
: juneiker caceras a candidate for the next T100 update?
|
| 3:08 |
: Yes, maybe the player we’ve hemmed and hawed about the most
|
| 3:09 |
: Will De Vries make the revised top 50?
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| 3:09 |
: Re: De Vries: meant top 10.
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| 3:09 |
: Glad I caught the second question.
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| 3:09 |
: Yes
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| 3:10 |
: Big if, but let’s say the Angels trade Neto, Detmers, Soriano. Would they have a top 5 farm system at this point next year?
|
| 3:10 |
: That feels possible but not guaranteed. Lot of factors.
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| 3:10 |
: Should I be concerned about DFG in AA yet or more patience?
|
| 3:10 |
: Patience
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| 3:11 |
: Jefferson Rojas was really bad at AA after a midseason promotion last year.
|
| 3:11 |
: And now he’s hitting well there and is still a T100 guy
|
| 3:11 |
: Sometimes guys need a beat at a new level
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| 3:12 |
: If you’re Mile Hazen, are you buying? The Dbacks are so meh (22nd in pitching and position player WAR, terrible record against over .500 teams) and yet they’re right there.
|
| 3:13 |
: I think so. I don’t envy their long term situation, if they have a chance to catch lightning in a bottle, makes sense to try.
|
| 3:13 |
: Not too many guys they can deal away that would really sting down the line anyway
|
| 3:14 |
: Is Luke Adams doing enough to break into the T100? Seems like he’s really improved on pulling the ball in the air this year.
|
| 3:14 |
: No, I’ll wear it if this proves wrong, but watching him, he looks fairly stiff and slower twitch and I don’t think he’ll hit like this against big league stuff. We’ll see!
|
| 3:15 |
: With the looming lockout, how imperative is it for teams to pare down their 40-man? Could it be less necessary than usual? I was thinking the Mets should be scouring the Rays roster to try to pawn off Peralta or one of their relievers and try to take advantage of TBR’s upcoming roster crunch, but the lockout could allow TB to not have to act so quickly in that regard?
|
| 3:16 |
: They’ll have to do it at some point though. I don’t think the lockout will change the equation too much for most teams.
|
| 3:17 |
: The types of guys who are on the margins for a 40-man add or not are not the players who hold up a big deal at the deadline
|
| 3:17 |
: Where does Ethan Salas’ hit tool fall? Even with how it didn’t translate in the more injured seasons, the report in April notes the underlying data is solid, but even with that, putting a 40 FV cap felt very low
|
| 3:17 |
: And it looks light in retrospect, he’s shown some hitterish tendencies this year that weren’t a big part of his game previously
|
| 3:20 |
: Jeff Fletcher of the OC Register pitcher a three team deal between the Dodgers, Angels, and Tigers where each team gets:
Dodgers: Skubal What’s your gut reaction to it? |
| 3:20 |
: That the devil is in the details here
|
| 3:20 |
: 3-5 dodgers prospects could mean a lot of things. It’s not going to be 3-5 of their T100 guys
|
| 3:22 |
: Help! Make me feel less bad about the Mets! One arrow-up guy in the minors??
|
| 3:22 |
: Mitch Voit is having a perfectly fine year
|
| 3:22 |
: If you do an article on pitcher extension for prospects, can you put the “extension” tag on it as though it were a contract extension?
|
| 3:23 |
: I’m all for doing things that two people will find witty
|
| 3:23 |
: Brandon Clarke up to 103 in his rehab appearance this week. Obviously the velo has never been the concern for him, at all notable he’s come back at full strength though?
|
| 3:23 |
: Sure, better that his arm strength has returned than the other thing.
|
| 3:23 |
: As you note, it’s the other stuff to watch going forward
|
| 3:24 |
: Are we down on Tait as a catcher (or even hitter) compared to last year at this time? I think he’s just too young to be really down on. thanks,
|
| 3:24 |
: Holding steady for me, toolsy and high variance low minors catcher.
|
| 3:24 |
: Follow up: Weirdly about Salas, his IFFB% is still high & I remember reading a weakness is getting under FBs. I haven’t seen him, but what are changes Salas has made? How much of previous bad seasons was poor BABIP luck if at all? Big jump without a big change in batted ball other than a few more line drives.
|
| 3:25 |
: I haven’t watched him a ton but I’ve seen him track a few balls well and use the field in a way that stood out.
|
| 3:26 |
: Can the Mets actually get anything for Robert or Polanco?
|
| 3:26 |
: Temper your expectations, but sure
|
| 3:26 |
: What range do you think the Braves farm system sits at in the team rankings now? Top 15?
|
| 3:27 |
: Yeah that feels about right.
|
| 3:27 |
: Fuentes and Ritchie graduated so maybe that’ll move the needle a little lower than I’m anticipating?
|
| 3:28 |
: Lot of moving parts with the new draft guys and people graduating every few days at this point in the season
|
| 3:28 |
: Is Henry Lalane getting any T100 consideration or do you need to see more innings from him?
|
| 3:28 |
: Want to see him do it more, he was on the long list of guys we checked on
|
| 3:29 |
: Providing he signs relatively soon, do you think Liam Peterson will pitch this summer?
|
| 3:29 |
: If you count instructs, I would guess yes but I don’t have inside info.
|
| 3:29 |
: In years past they’ve rolled out draft guys in instructs even if they didn’t throw in affiliated ball
|
| 3:31 |
: Am I wrong to think that the threat of a lockout and potential loss of at least some of the 2027 season may make teams reluctant to bring up prospects for their proverbial cup of coffee in September this year because then they will be on the 40 man roster (making them ineligible to play/practice during a lockout)? I’m thinking of guys like Franklin Arias.
|
| 3:32 |
: I could see that as a factor. I think, for Arias specifically, a playoff push/roster spot will ultimately be a bigger part of the calculus.
|
| 3:33 |
: Have the Mariners been more aggressive in their promotion strategy for their top prospects then in years past. Pushing Farmelo and Celesten to Arkansas after only a few months of success seems like a big push.
|
| 3:33 |
: I don’t think so.
|
| 3:33 |
: Anderson is still in AA. Farmelo has been in Everett since the start of 2025. Arroyo/Montes got almost exactly a year in AA even though they both hit.
|
| 3:34 |
: Celesten was very good in High-A all year long and he was there for a bit last season
|
| 3:34 |
: Stevenson still in Everett
|
| 3:34 |
: Becker still on the complex
|
| 3:35 |
: none of that scans as aggressive to me.
|
| 3:35 |
: Kade Anderson is listed as the #2 prospect on the Trade Values list at #38 overall, just one slot behind Jesus Made. How do you feel about that?
|
| 3:36 |
: Reasonable. Ben and I talked about a couple of prospects, and he had a sneak peak at the top guys on the midseason 100
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| 3:39 |
: Let’s shut it down here today.
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| 3:39 |
: Thanks everyone for hanging out, we’ll do it again next week.
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